Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Oyster, the Netflix of books, is done. I'm not shocked.

Insert your own pun about Oyster being fried, or failing to produce a pearl.
Most of you probably haven't even heard of it, but Oyster, the self-proclaimed 'Netflix for Books,' has been operating for a little over a year. It debuted to some pretty bad reviews and worries about the business model, but so did Netflix originally.

Of course, Netflix was adaptable, and proved that their ultimate vision was one consumers shared. Oyster? Not so much. It's shutting down.

The aforelinked IBT article feels prescient, but being a consumer and producer of written stories, I think there are a few simple reasons why Oyster failed, and why future startups with the same model likely will as well.

Books Aren't As Consumable

This was the big killer, and it was obvious to pretty much anyone in the business. As the IBT article says, none but the most voracious readers can finish more than a few books a month.  Add to that the fact that books are already sport a fantastically high time-to-cost ratio -- you can purchase anywhere from 3-9 Kindle Daily Deal books for Oyster's $9.99 subscription price -- and it's hard to see where Oyster's value proposition is.

Publishers Are Conservative and Fearful

Book publishers hate change. Of course, so do network and film executives. But the publishing industry has been particularly slow to embrace the digital age -- see all their petty fights with Amazon and Google about eBook pricing, archiving, etc. Oyster, from all the hearsay, had a a rough time getting some publishers on board, and though all the Big Six minus Amazon did eventually put titles on the service, even at the end the list felt anemic. The store is bulked up by entries that are actually just purchase links (imagine how infuriating it would be to click on a Netflix title only to hear that it'll cost you an extra $12.99). New releases are nonexistent, and even many older, popular books are unavailable (Want to read the original Game of Thrones, released in 1996? That'll be $6.99!)

There is Already a Netflix of Books -- And It's Successful

Thing is, we have a company that provides a service similar to what Oyster was trying to be. It's Audible, the largest audiobook provider (some would say monopoly). An Audible subscription isn't quite a buffet, but that's okay -- we rarely binge on books in the same way that we blaze through an entire season of a television show in a day. A single audio book often has a running time longer than thirteen hours, and the 'power user' audible subscription gives two books a month, which I'd equate to anywhere from one to three seasons, depending on how big of a doorstop you choose. That's plenty for all but the most dedicated Netflix viewers.

Some might claim that Audible is far less relevant to the publishing industry than Netflix is to the television industry. I kind of doubt it. As proof, I submit to you John Scalzi's post from a few months back showing that audio sales were fully half of his total sales. Not revenue -- sales. Audible has become a major player in this space, and while Scalzi's previous books might have grown him a bigger audio audience than normal (and his famous narrators don't hurt!), I suspect this is not wildly out of line with what other authors are seeing.

So what now? Well, as the article says, many from the Oyster team have jumped ship to Google (Alphabet?) Play Books, leading to some speculation that Google is going to start a book subscription service. I kinda doubt it. Google would have to overcome the same problems Oyster faced, and while they certainly be able to throw a ton of money at the problem, money doesn't change consumer habits by itself. And convincing publishers to participate might actually be harder given that industry's distrust stemming from the book scanning fight.

I think what's next is the status quo. eBooks, eBooks, eBooks, with a growing dominance of audio as well. Given Kindle's success, consumers seem pretty happy with the way books are purchased right now (unlike in the days before Netflix, where your only choice for rewatching a show was buying $40+ physical DVD sets). Until that changes, there's probably not much room for disruption.

No comments: